Tag Archives: EU Referendum

Cameron Blew it Over Brexit. So Lets Blame Corbyn

One narrative that is emerging to explain the outcome of the EU Referendum hinges on the claim that the Labour Party did not deliver the vote in its traditional northern heartlands. Or rather, Corbyn did not deliver because his brand of metropolitan socialism did not resonate with the concerns of traditional, socially conservative labour voters, in particular around the impact of largescale immigration from the EU on their communities.

And younger city dwellers who are fast becoming the natural demographic for Corbyn supporters are alleged to have failed to vote in sufficient numbers. According to a tweet by Sky Data that quickly gained acceptance on social media only 36% of 18 – 24 year olds voted.  Writing in The New Statesman, Barbara Speed was not convinced.

Sky isn’t claiming this is collected data – it’s projected, and a subsequent tweet said it was based on “9+/10 certainty to vote, usually/always votes, voted/ineligible at GE2015”. I’ve asked for more information on what this means, but for now it’s enough to say it’s nothing more than a guess.

On Sunday the Observer provided some more reliable data from Opinium, the polling agency that came closest to predicting the outcome of the EU Referendum.

OPINIUM Poll published on June 22nd

graphgraph 1

According to the Observer, Opinium pollsters, working for the LSE after the referendum

found turnout among young people to be far higher than data has so far suggested. “Young people cared and voted in very large numbers. We found turnout was very close to the national average, and much higher than in general and local elections.

“After correcting for over-reporting [people always say they vote more than they do], we found that the likely turnout of 18- to 24-year-olds was 70% – just 2.5% below the national average – and 67% for 25- to 29-year-olds.

The original Opinium poll published on the eve of the referendum also demonstrated the extent of the split in the Labour and Conservative parties. And the split was more pronounced for the Tories.

graph 2

The figures suggest that the Labour vote for Remain held even in the North, where their core vote was already under pressure from UKIP. This is borne out by post a Referendum poll by Lord Ashcroft.

Remain % Leave %
Conservative 42 58
Labour 63 37
Lib Dem 70 30
UKIP 4 96
Green 75 25
SNP 64 36

Source: Ashcroft polls Get the data

TO SUM UP

The Tories, not Labour promised a referendum on Europe.

The Tories, not Labour negotiated the new terms to keep Britain the EU.

The majority of Tory voters voted to leave.

The majority of Labour voters voted to remain.

But it is Labour, not the Tories who are to blame because they did not deliver a big enough vote for Remain. The Parliamentary Labour Party have accepted this and decided that they are going to blame Jeremy Corbyn. That is the justification for their leadership coup. There may be good political reasons to question Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. But the Referendum Campaign is not one of them.

Brexit? Blame it on Corbyn!

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I am very angry with David Cameron. If the Remain camp is right and Brexit would be an unmitigated disaster for the UK why is he risking all our futures with this referendum? The only reason I can find is that he has put his party first and his country second. Last year with a general election approaching, the euro-sceptic wing of the Conservative Party was threatening to defect to UKIP in large numbers. Cameron did not believe he could win the election and so  made a manifesto pledge to renegotiate the terms of UK membership of the EU and hold a referendum if the Conservatives formed the next government. He never expected he would have to deliver on this promise but he calculated that it would serve to keep the Conservative Party together. So when he won the election what was he supposed to do?

  1. Break the election pledge on the grounds that he would not lead this country into the abyss, and carry on as Prime Minister?
  2. Break the election pledge on the grounds that he would not lead this country into the abyss, and resign as Prime Minister?
  3. Engage in a cosmetic “renegotiation” with our EU partners (Help me out here, guys!) and proclaim a great victory that fools nobody?

Cameron chose the third option and the result has been a Blue on Blue campaign within a divided Conservative Party. Remain is using the politics of fear: economic disaster if we leave. Brexit reciprocates with the bogey of unlimited immigration if we stay. Whether right or wrong both these arguments are about narrow self interest. The Labour campaign to remain has not received the same level of publicity but, as far as I can make out, they are saying that the EU is a flawed institution in need of further reform. Nevertheless it remains a positive force and Britain should remain and lead the campaign to improve the EU.

There has been a constant, nagging element to media coverage that Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn is lukewarm in his support for the EU and if Brexit wins it will be his fault for not delivering the Labour vote on Referendum Day. Never mind that he has been touring the country delivering a pro EU message throughout the campaign with very little media coverage. What media coverage there is focuses on confusion among Labour voters about where their party stands in relation to the EU. Of course they are confused. Unless you live in one of the towns where Corbyn and his team visits and delivers the pro EU message you have to rely on the national media for your news. And, with rare exceptions, they are not reporting his contribution to the debate, preferring the drama of the “blue on blue action” in the Conservative Party. “Politician says something sensible and people support him,” is not a newsworthy headline.

But if we do leave the EU it will be down to Cameron, not Corbyn. Consider the evidence.

  1. Tory MPs are split 4 to 3 in favour of the EU. Labour split is 20 to 1 in favour of the EU.
  2. The Cabinet is divided. The Shadow Cabinet is united.
  3. Conservative voters divide equally between Remain and Exit. Labour are between 60% and 70% for Remain.

Whatever the outcome  of the Referendum, Cameron should resign. Any notion that a victory for Brexit is down to Labour equivocation has no justification in fact. If not for Cameron’s cowardly retreat in the face of his euro-sceptic opponents in the Conservative Party we would not even be in this plight.