The assault on Iran by the USA and Israel is a clear breach of international law. Even Starmer thinks so, which is why the UK has refused to support the air strikes in Iran. But unlike other countries, the Labour government has refused to condemn them either. Instead they have condemned the Iranian response as an “escalation” and called for Iran to return to the negotiating table.
Starmer continues to fudge. After first refusing to allow US strikes from UK bases he now says they can make defensive strikes against Iran. Let us be clear. It is not an escalation to respond to unprovoked air strikes that have killed hundreds of civilians and murdered supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by targeting Israel, the USA and their allies in the Middle East. It is self-defence. The aggressors in an illegal war (USA and Israel) do not have the right to self-defence. And neither does the UK if Starmer allows the USA to continue the war using British airbases.
Regarding negotiations, as late as Friday, the day before the attacks began, Iran was engaged in negotiations and making concessions which suggested a deal was imminent. USA and Israel were emboldened to attack, not because of any immediate threat from Iran, but because of Iran’s perceived weakness.
Trump has made it clear that this is a bid for regime change. Therein lies the danger. To achieve regime change, as opposed to taking out the current leadership, requires boots on the ground. Trump has no stomach for that, given the inevitable US casualties and because the war is already deeply unpopular in the USA. His MAGA base are opposed to foreign wars. Public opinion in the USA is switching from support for Israel to support for Palestine. If Trump imagines that, after the brutal suppression of demonstrations for regime change in January when tens of thousands were killed, Iranians are going to rise up again while US and Israeli missiles rain down upon them, he is deluding himself.
A more likely outcome of Trump’s ill-judged intervention is that the regime will survive shorn of its capacity to have a regional impact but continuing to clamp down on opposition within Iran. Or worse, it will follow Iraq, Libya, Syria and other failed regime change attempts by western imperialism to become a failed state that will inject even more instability into the region and generate even more profits for the immoral arms trade.
If the regime does collapse will it mark the return of the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi? I hope not because his plans are for an autocratic regime led by himself with no democratic restraints. I can understand why a man, who has publicly thanked Trump for a bombing campaign which has, inter alia, bombed a school, killing dozens of primary age schoolgirls, destroyed a sports hall, killing female Iranian athletes and a hospital, is wary of a democratic Iran. And a democratic Iran is wary of Reza Pahlavi. American Iranians for Liberty, who stand for a return to a secular state with a constitutional monarchy, have criticised a booklet, endorsed by Reza Pahlavi, because they have “serious concerns about the booklet’s approach, hoping the serious flaws in the Booklet will be addressed in the future drafts.”
Iranian exiles in the UK have been celebrating the USA assault on their homeland in demonstrations with Iranian royalist and Israeli flags and banners in evidence. They should be more careful about what they wish for.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) is led by Maryam Rajavi whose political career began against the Shah 50 years and continued against the Ayatollah Khomeini. They want a secular, democratic republic and unlike the self styled Crown Prince, they have not welcomed US attacks on their country. Nor are their demonstrations besmirched by Israeli flags. But it is hard to gauge the strength of their organisation inside Iran.
The situation amongst Iranian opponents of the Islamic Republic, both within and without Iran is far more nuanced than western commentators and politicians would have us believe. Counterfire has reissued a statement by Iranian activists, first issued before the weekend assault, which ends with this declaration.
We believe that resisting foreign military intervention and spreading the slogan “No to war” throughout society is not only inseparable from all the slogans of the progressive movements in Iran’s history, but is the very basis and foundation of any struggle that holds dear the ideals of dignity, equality, and a more humane life.
No kings, no ayatollahs, no foreign intervention. The Iranian people deserve better.
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