With the exception of the anti-vaxxers and the Covid deniers, most of us will surely welcome the success of the vaccine programme. It is rare success for a government that has been criticised, rightly so I in my opinion, for its lack of preparedness, slowness to act and at times perverse decisions often with tragic consequences: herd immunity, PPE procurement, the care home scandal, track and trace. The list goes on.

The lockdown strategy has been pursued with an eye to protect the NHS but another eye on the economic consequences. This stop/go policy never got the virus under control. Nor did it do much to protect the economy. The exchequer has run up massive bills with little positive to show for it.

The government has got away with it so far largely because a compliant media has sought to make a virtue out of every necessary twist and and turn of policy. We expect this of the Tory press but broadcast media output has also been more about getting behind the government at a time of national crisis, rather than holding them to account for their failure to deal adequately with that crisis.

The Labour opposition under Starmer has tried to back the government in the national interest. (This policy rests upon the risky and unproven belief that the Tories are motivated by some notion of national interest and not by the desire for political survival and the financial well-being of their class.) Hence he challenges it to do more and to learn from its mistakes. He rarely seeks to identify the roots of its failure in its free market ideology. He does not offer an alternative based on socialist principles. Thus he risks being seen as complicit in Tory failure because he does not offer a coherent alternative and when, as with the vaccine rollout, the government enjoys some success, he cannot claim the credit. Any criticism will be seen as carping from the sidelines.

The very success of the vaccine programme is invigorating the Tories. Starmer often gets the better of Johnson at PMQs. Not that it matters much, as these exchanges rarely make the headlines. But last week on what should have been a winner for Starmer – Free School Meals during school holidays for locked down families – Johnson was able to boast that Marcus Rashford was doing a better job than Starmer at holding him to account! Saying in effect, “I might be crap but so are you for letting me get away with it!” It says a lot about Westminster politics that that counts as a win for Johnson.

So why has the government succeeded with vaccines when it has failed so dismally at everything else? It has not. The vaccine programme is succeeding because it builds on existing infrastructure that the government has had to turn to. You cannot outsource science to Serco. and it is science, an alliance of research establishments and specialist drug manufacturers, aka “big pharma,” who have delivered on vaccines.

Distribution is another matter. In the UK vaccine rollout has benefitted enormously from our established systems for delivering the annual flu vaccine. These rely on GP databases and in a typical year deliver over 11 million doses to a mixed population of over 65s and vulnerable adults alongside smaller numbers of pregnant women and 2-3 year olds. Typically over 70% of over 65s and 45% of the other groups take up the vaccine between September and February. the challenge for the government has been to vaccinate in a matter of weeks numbers that are usually spread over months.

There have been well publicised problems with some of the top down distribution centres: How do you get an 8o year old who is shielding to travel 50 miles to a car park during lockdown? But overall the results are promising. With flu vaccine in normal circumstances we vaccinate about 12 million in 6 months. The target is to reach 15 million in two months. I think they will miss the target but not by much. It is obviously a political choice, to get the most vulnerable vaccinated by half term so they can ease the lockdown and open up the schools.

The biggest test is yet to come. This year, because of COVID, the flu vaccine was extended to cover nearly half the population, including school age children and the over 50s. And while record numbers of old people, vulnerable adults, pregnant women and toddlers have been vaccinated, only a quarter of the newly eligible opted to take the flu vaccine. They may be more inclined to take the COVID vaccine, especially if it signals the end of lockdowns and a return to normality.

If people do take up the vaccine and my feeling is that most will, the government will claim a victory. We have beaten the virus together. Hurrah! But the economic costs, real and imagined, will be used as cover for every broken Brexit promise. They will find new ways to hammer the working class and enrich themselves. Meanwhile they will take credit for the vaccine and plead for tolerance for their mistakes. “Unprecedented crisis. We did their best we could. Steep learning curve. Build back better and better prepared.” Etc., etc.

And Labour? Will we have a narrative to challenge theirs? Starmer has failed to lead an effective opposition to the Tories over COVID. If he concedes the economic arguments in advance we will be poorly placed to challenge on the post-COVID iteration of austerity and the fallout from the disastrous Brexit settlement and our prospects in 2024 look gloomy.